RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Bill Leavy
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMall of America Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Cleveland Browns · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CLE scores 59% · allows 49%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CLE6 games
Scored7.3
Allowed8.2
Pass share48%
41–56% · 151 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CLE7 games
Scored7.3
Allowed13.7
Pass share58%
47–69% · 209 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CLE4 games
Scored7.3
Allowed11.0
Pass share62%
45–79% · 131 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.2
6.2Q1
6.4
4.6Q2
10.6scored10.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.5
5.6Q3
4.8
5.5Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CLEMIN
4-12
Record
5-10-1
19.3
Points for / game
24.4
25.4
Points against / game
30.0
3-5 / 1-7
Home / road
5-3 / 0-7
L L L L L
Last 5
W L W L W
2013 season only (not a rolling window) · 16 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CLEMIN
-0.071
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.038
-0.003
EPA / play allowed
0.077
273
Pass yards / game
228
86
Rush yards / game
130
233
Pass yards allowed
304
111
Rush yards allowed
110
1.4 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.6 / 1.5
3.1 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.8 / 2.6
17.3
First downs / game
17.4
58
Penalty yards / game
43
−4.7
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−1.7 · #30 of 46
2013 season to date · 16 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CLEMIN
6-18 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
11-12-1 · 48%
Last two seasons (2012–2013), CLE 32 games, MIN 33. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2CLEseriesMIN2
Avg total points
41.5
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025MIN 21 vs CLE 17MIN
2021CLE 14 at MIN 7CLE
2017MIN 33 vs CLE 16MIN
2013CLE 31 at MIN 27CLE
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Josh GordonWR15923.7%
Jordan CameronTE11817.6%
Greg LittleWR9914.8%
Davone BessWR8612.8%
Chris OgbonnayaRB7511.2%
Fozzy WhittakerRB355.2%
Gary BarnidgeTE182.7%
Josh CooperWR142.1%
Travis BenjaminWR131.9%
Trent RichardsonRB111.6%
Willis McGaheeRB111.6%
Edwin BakerRB91.3%
MarQueis GrayTE91.3%
Brian TymsWR50.7%
Bobby RaineyRB40.6%
Tori GurleyWR30.4%
Armanti EdwardsWR10.1%
Greg JenningsWR10519.7%
Jerome SimpsonWR10018.7%
Cordarrelle PattersonRB7714.4%
John CarlsonTE478.8%
Kyle RudolphTE468.6%
Jarius WrightWR438.1%
Adrian PetersonRB407.5%
Toby GerhartRB193.6%
Chase FordTE163.0%
Joe WebbQB112.1%
Rhett EllisonTE101.9%
Jerome FeltonFB81.5%
Matt AsiataRB81.5%
Zach LineFB30.6%
Joe BanyardRB10.2%
Cleveland Browns2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
