RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 10, 2023
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.6
≈ in line with the league average (12.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
90.9
≈ in line with the league average (100.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.4
≈ in line with the league average (10.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 541 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
JAX offensevsARI defense
JAX offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
+0.08
#10Stronger
+0.17
#26
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#14Stronger
−0.02
#25
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
41%
#14Stronger
45%
#29
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
63%
#8Stronger
64%
#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.2%
#16Stronger
4.8%
#28
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#13slight
1.12
#18
ARI offensevsJAX defense
ARI offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · JAX defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.02
#19
−0.09
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#29
−0.07
Stronger#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#9Stronger
41%
#21
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
54%
#24
62%
#24
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.9%
#24Stronger
4.5%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#17
1.61
Stronger#3
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
JAX offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors JAX
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:JAX scores 53% · allows 44%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
JAX11 games
Scored12.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
35–44% · 307 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
JAX3 games
Scored20.0
Allowed15.7
Pass share45%
34–57% · 110 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
JAX3 games
Scored10.0
Allowed10.3
Pass share69%
56–81% · 105 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
3.2Q1
8.9
5.0Q2
14.9scored8.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.7Q3
6.4
7.4Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXARI
13-5
Record
3-14
27.7
Points for / game
20.9
20.2
Points against / game
28.7
7-3 / 6-2
Home / road
1-7 / 2-7
L W W W W
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXARI
0.031
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.016
-0.079
EPA / play allowed
0.082
235
Pass yards / game
256
117
Rush yards / game
93
234
Pass yards allowed
243
85
Rush yards allowed
127
1.0 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
2.3 / 1.8
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 1.8
18.8
First downs / game
18.1
61
Penalty yards / game
50
+3.5 · #17 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+0.2 · #29 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
JAXARI
7-14 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-18 · 25%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), JAX 35 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1JAXseriesARI3
Avg total points
48.3
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025JAX 27 at ARI 24JAX
2021ARI 31 at JAX 19ARI
2017JAX 24 at ARI 27ARI
2013ARI 27 at JAX 14ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Parker WashingtonWR10718.5%
Brian Thomas Jr.WR9316.1%
Jakobi MeyersWR6511.3%
Brenton StrangeTE6511.3%
Travis EtienneRB579.9%
Travis HunterWR457.8%
Dyami BrownWR376.4%
Tim PatrickWR254.3%
Johnny MundtTE193.3%
Hunter LongTE172.9%
Bhayshul TutenRB142.4%
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB122.1%
Austin TrammellWR101.7%
Quintin MorrisTE91.6%
Tim JonesWR10.2%
DeeJay DallasRB10.2%
Trey McBrideTE16927.4%
Michael WilsonWR12620.4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR7311.8%
Michael CarterRB457.3%
Elijah HigginsTE376.0%
Greg DortchWR335.3%
Bam KnightRB315.0%
Emari DemercadoRB203.2%
Zay JonesWR182.9%
Trey BensonRB162.6%
Xavier WeaverWR132.1%
James ConnerRB91.5%
Jalen BrooksWR61.0%
Tip ReimanTE50.8%
Josiah DeguaraTE50.8%
Andre BaccelliaWR40.6%
Corey KinerRB30.5%
Pharaoh BrownTE20.3%
Trent SherfieldWR10.2%
Steven SimsWR10.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
