RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 3, 2023
Brad Rogers
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.0
≈ in line with the league average (12.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
101.0
≈ in line with the league average (100.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.7
≈ in line with the league average (10.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 539 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CHI offensevsMIN defense
CHI offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.12
#9
−0.12
Stronger#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.00
#6Stronger
−0.08
#13
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
44%
#6
35%
slight#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
57%
#16
43%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
3.4%
#1slight
9.3%
#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.84
#4Stronger
1.18
#16
MIN offensevsCHI defense
MIN offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · CHI defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.16
#29
+0.07
Stronger#19
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#18slight
−0.03
#19
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
32%
#31
40%
Stronger#16
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#17slight
59%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
10.5%
#31
5.8%
Stronger#21
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 31 places
1.65
#32
1.74
Stronger#1
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CHI offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+0.12#9▼
−0.12#2▼
Pass success ratefavors MIN
45%#18
40%#3▼
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
10.2%#7
6.1%#1▼
Yards / dropback
6.6#10
5.6#6▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.9
6.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
16%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
44%
56%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−3.9#30▼
−4.4#4▼
YAC / completionfavors CHI
5.5#8
5.3#22
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
3.4%#1▼
9.3%#3▲
Scramble rate
6.9%
5.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors CHI
1.8%#9▲
1.8%#21▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 31 · M 23 · R 46
L 39 · M 23 · R 37
MIN offenseCHI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors CHI
−0.16#29▼
+0.07#19▲
Pass success ratefavors CHI
42%#28
47%#20
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
7.0%#24▼
10.6%#32
Yards / dropback
5.4#28
6.8#27
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.8
8.6
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
51%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.9#27▲
+2.9#29▼
YAC / completion
5.1#15
4.9#14▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CHI
10.5%#31▲
5.8%#21
Scramble rate
4.9%
4.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors CHI
4.3%#32▼
3.7%#2▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 18 · R 46
L 36 · M 25 · R 40
Chicago Bears · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CHI scores 39% · allows 53%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHIMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CHI5 games
Scored15.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share37%
32–41% · 172 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CHI5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed9.0
Pass share48%
42–54% · 182 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CHI7 games
Scored17.9
Allowed11.0
Pass share64%
60–69% · 257 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
6.4
3.6Q1
3.9
8.1Q2
10.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.2
3.7Q3
9.6
6.3Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CHIMIN
12-7
Record
9-8
25.7
Points for / game
20.2
24.3
Points against / game
19.6
7-3 / 5-4
Home / road
4-4 / 5-4
L W L L W
Last 5
W W W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CHIMIN
0.068
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.120
0.031
EPA / play allowed
-0.087
243
Pass yards / game
189
143
Rush yards / game
108
245
Pass yards allowed
178
131
Rush yards allowed
124
0.7 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.5
1.3 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 2.9
19.8
First downs / game
15.2
53
Penalty yards / game
52
+3.5 · #16 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−4.7 · #43 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CHIMIN
8-17 · 32%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-6 · 57%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), CHI 36 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
11CHIseriesMIN18
Avg total points
39.0
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2026MIN 9 at CHI 3MIN
2025CHI 19 at MIN 17CHI
2025MIN 27 at CHI 24MIN
2024CHI 12 at MIN 30MIN
2024MIN 30 at CHI 27MIN
2023CHI 12 at MIN 10CHI
2023MIN 19 at CHI 13MIN
2022MIN 29 at CHI 13MIN
All 29 meetings
2022CHI 22 at MIN 29MIN
2021CHI 17 at MIN 31MIN
2021MIN 17 at CHI 9MIN
2020CHI 33 at MIN 27CHI
2020MIN 19 at CHI 13MIN
2019CHI 21 at MIN 19CHI
2019MIN 6 at CHI 16CHI
2018CHI 24 at MIN 10CHI
2018MIN 20 at CHI 25CHI
2017CHI 10 at MIN 23MIN
2017MIN 20 at CHI 17MIN
2016CHI 10 at MIN 38MIN
2016MIN 10 at CHI 20CHI
2015CHI 17 at MIN 38MIN
2015MIN 23 at CHI 20MIN
2014CHI 9 at MIN 13MIN
2014MIN 13 at CHI 21CHI
2013CHI 20 at MIN 23MIN
2013MIN 30 at CHI 31CHI
2012CHI 14 at MIN 21MIN
2012MIN 10 at CHI 28CHI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colston LovelandTE10717.3%
Rome OdunzeWR10216.5%
DJ MooreWR10016.1%
Luther Burden IIIWR7411.9%
Olamide ZaccheausWR6911.1%
Cole KmetTE538.5%
D'Andre SwiftRB508.1%
Kyle MonangaiRB376.0%
Jahdae WalkerWR101.6%
Durham SmytheTE91.5%
Devin DuvernayWR50.8%
Caleb WilliamsQB20.3%
Brittain BrownRB10.2%
Theo BenedetOL10.2%
Justin JeffersonWR14130.1%
Jordan AddisonWR7916.9%
T.J. HockensonTE6614.1%
Jalen NailorWR5311.3%
Aaron JonesRB418.8%
Josh OliverTE194.1%
Adam ThielenWR183.8%
Jordan MasonRB163.4%
Zavier ScottRB163.4%
Ben SimsTE61.3%
Ty ChandlerRB40.9%
Ben YurosekTE30.6%
Tai FeltonWR30.6%
C.J. HamFB20.4%
Cam AkersRB10.2%
Chicago Bears2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
