RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 30, 2023
Clete Blakeman
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.6
≈ in line with the league average (12.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
114.8
≈ in line with the league average (101.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (10.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 498 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
MIN offensevsLAC defense
MIN offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.16
#29
−0.06
Stronger#8
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#18
−0.12
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
32%
#31
35%
Stronger#5
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#17
44%
Stronger#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
10.5%
#31
8.0%
Stronger#6
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.65
#32
1.33
Stronger#7
LAC offensevsMIN defense
LAC offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#24
−0.12
Stronger#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#23
−0.08
Stronger#13
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#4
35%
slight#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 29 places
46%
#30
43%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 26 places
9.1%
#29
9.3%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#14slight
1.18
#16
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MIN offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIN scores 48% · allows 55%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINLACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MINLAC
9-8
Record
11-7
20.2
Points for / game
20.6
19.6
Points against / game
19.8
4-4 / 5-4
Home / road
6-3 / 5-4
W W W W W
Last 5
L L L W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MINLAC
-0.120
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.039
-0.087
EPA / play allowed
-0.083
189
Pass yards / game
228
108
Rush yards / game
120
178
Pass yards allowed
199
124
Rush yards allowed
108
1.4 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.8
3.5 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
3.7 / 2.8
15.2
First downs / game
17.6
52
Penalty yards / game
45
+0.6 · #26 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.2 · #25 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MINLAC
8-6 · 57%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-6 · 40%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), MIN 35 games, LAC 36. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3MINseriesLAC2
Avg total points
48.0
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAC have won the last 2.
2025MIN 10 at LAC 37LAC
2023LAC 28 at MIN 24LAC
2021MIN 27 at LAC 20MIN
2019MIN 39 at LAC 10MIN
2015LAC 14 at MIN 31MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Justin JeffersonWR14130.1%
Jordan AddisonWR7916.9%
T.J. HockensonTE6614.1%
Jalen NailorWR5311.3%
Aaron JonesRB418.8%
Josh OliverTE194.1%
Adam ThielenWR183.8%
Jordan MasonRB163.4%
Zavier ScottRB163.4%
Ben SimsTE61.3%
Ty ChandlerRB40.9%
Ben YurosekTE30.6%
Tai FeltonWR30.6%
C.J. HamFB20.4%
Cam AkersRB10.2%
Keenan AllenWR13022.6%
Ladd McConkeyWR11019.2%
Quentin JohnstonWR9015.7%
Oronde Gadsden IITE7212.5%
Tre HarrisWR468.0%
Omarion HamptonRB356.1%
Kimani VidalRB254.4%
Will DisslyTE162.8%
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR122.1%
Tyler ConklinTE101.7%
Tucker FiskTE71.2%
Jaret PattersonRB40.7%
Hassan HaskinsRB40.7%
Scott MatlockFB40.7%
Derius DavisWR30.5%
Najee HarrisRB30.5%
Trayveon WilliamsRB10.2%
Trevor PenningOT10.2%
Amar JohnsonRB10.2%
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
