RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 24, 2022
Clete Blakeman
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.4
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
91.5
≈ in line with the league average (93.3)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.0
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
LAC offensevsARI defense
LAC offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#15Stronger
+0.09
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#17Stronger
−0.01
#26
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
40%
#11Stronger
44%
#28
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#20
53%
Stronger#7
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.7%
#23
6.6%
Stronger#17
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 20 places
0.67
#3Stronger
0.94
#23
ARI offensevsLAC defense
ARI offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 5 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.11
#11
−0.03
slight#6
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.00
#8
−0.12
slight#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#8
36%
slight#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
56%
#17
45%
Stronger#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.9%
#5slight
7.1%
#9
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#20
1.39
Stronger#9
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LAC offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
+0.06#15▲
+0.09#24
Pass success ratefavors LAC
44%#18
49%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.5%#10▼
7.8%#13▲
Yards / dropbackfavors LAC
6.7#8
6.4#21
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.8
6.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
47%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
+0.5#18▼
+3.3#25▼
YAC / completionfavors ARI
5.2#20
5.2#14
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ARI
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAC scores 46% · allows 55%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LACARI
11-7
Record
8-9
23.0
Points for / game
23.5
18.5
Points against / game
22.3
5-3 / 6-4
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
L W W W L
Last 5
W L L W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LACARI
0.010
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.083
-0.067
EPA / play allowed
0.061
230
Pass yards / game
227
107
Rush yards / game
144
225
Pass yards allowed
231
120
Rush yards allowed
126
0.6 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.5
2.7 / 2.7
Sacks allowed / made
1.8 / 2.4
16.6
First downs / game
19.2
40
Penalty yards / game
47
+3.0 · #16 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.9 · #12 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LACARI
1-11 · 8%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-18 · 33%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), LAC 35 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2LACseriesARI3
Avg total points
42.2
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). ARI have won the last 2.
2026ARI 26 at LAC 14ARI
2024LAC 15 at ARI 17ARI
2022LAC 25 at ARI 24LAC
2018ARI 10 at LAC 45LAC
2014LAC 17 at ARI 18ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ladd McConkeyWR12624.3%
Quentin JohnstonWR9618.5%
Will DisslyTE6913.3%
Josh PalmerWR6512.5%
J.K. DobbinsRB397.5%
Stone SmarttTE193.7%
Derius DavisWR183.5%
Simi FehokoWR163.1%
DJ CharkWR142.7%
Hayden HurstTE132.5%
Jalen ReagorWR122.3%
Kimani VidalRB91.7%
Tucker FiskTE91.7%
Gus EdwardsRB51.0%
Hassan HaskinsRB40.8%
Eric TomlinsonTE40.8%
Trey McBrideTE14728.1%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR11622.2%
Michael WilsonWR7113.6%
James ConnerRB5510.5%
Greg DortchWR509.6%
Elijah HigginsTE244.6%
Emari DemercadoRB203.8%
Zay JonesWR112.1%
Michael CarterRB112.1%
Tip ReimanTE71.3%
Trey BensonRB61.1%
DeeJay DallasRB30.6%
Xavier WeaverWR20.4%
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
