Field and weatherKickoff conditions and this stadium's scoring vs the league (100 = average; rank 1 = most). History, not a forecast.
Robert W. Plaster Stadium · Springfield
SMU end zone ← 100 yards → MOST end zone
92°F
Forecast at kickoff
Wind
6 mph
Light
Precip
—
chance
Roof
Open air
Mild outdoors games: 53.7 points on average · 2,723 games since 2023
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
SMU offensevsMOST defense
SMU offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MOST defense in 2
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.34
#23Stronger
+0.25
#97
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.08
#64Stronger
+0.11
#96
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#56slight
40%
#82
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.89
#52Stronger
3.89
#88
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.8%
#99
15.0%
slight#83
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.46
#93
1.15
slight#88
MOST offensevsSMU defense
MOST offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · SMU defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.30
#34slight
+0.12
#53
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 93 places
+0.01
#97
−0.14
Stronger#4
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#101
36%
Stronger#44
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.
3.69
#67
2.79
Stronger#12
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.Widest gap · 119 places
23.9%
#135
18.8%
Stronger#16
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 80 places
1.38
#85
2.15
Stronger#5
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
SMU offenseMOST defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors SMU
+0.34#23
+0.25#97▲
Pass success ratefavors SMU
44%#39
43%#92
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors SMU
1.61#37
1.56#69
Yards / pass attemptfavors SMU
8.0#35
7.2#74
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors SMU
12.5%#22
9.6%#58▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors SMU
3.4%#18
5.9%#57▲
Completion %favors SMU
66%#26
64%#103
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MOST
3.9%#120▼
2.7%#53▼
MOST offenseSMU defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.30#34
+0.12#53▲
Pass success ratefavors MOST
42%#59
43%#90
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.
1.78#8
1.46#33
Yards / pass attemptfavors MOST
8.4#20
7.1#62
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors MOST
13.3%#14
10.3%#81
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors SMU
10.1%#131
5.9%#58▼
Completion %
64%#51
61%#58
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.8%#40
2.5%#60▼
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:SMU scores 53% · allows 42%MOST scores 50% · allows 47%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
SMUMOSTsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
SMU10 games
Scored14.6
Allowed9.9
Pass share52%
46–57% · 282 plays
MOST3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed13.7
Pass share34%
24–45% · 90 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
SMU4 games
Scored16.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share52%
39–65% · 142 plays
MOST5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed13.6
Pass share47%
39–54% · 161 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
SMU3 games
Scored16.0
Allowed15.0
Pass share59%
53–65% · 93 plays
MOST9 games
Scored11.9
Allowed17.4
Pass share56%
51–60% · 260 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
SMUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
4.4Q1
11.1
4.8Q2
17.1scored9.1allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.6
3.8Q3
8.9
8.2Q4
MOSTat the half: led 3 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 9 (of 17)
6.0
5.2Q1
6.7
8.6Q2
12.7scored13.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
5.9
7.1Q3
6.2
8.6Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SMUMOST
9-4
Record
7-6
32.2
Points for / game
25.6
20.5
Points against / game
28.8
6-1 / 3-3
Home / road
3-3 / 4-3
W L W W W
Last 5
L L L W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
SMUMOST
+13.4
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
−10.7
0.172
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.145
-0.047
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.163
43% / 40%
Success rate (off / def)
39% / 43%
1.36 / 1.18
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.50 / 1.31
767
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
426
50%
Returning production
—
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SMUMOST
4-2 · 67%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-6 · 25%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), SMU 27 games, MOST 14. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2SMUseriesMOST0
Avg total points
48.0
Meetings
2
They meet only some seasons (2 of the 4 in our history). SMU have won the last 2.
2026MOST 24 at SMU 34SMU
2025SMU 28 at MOST 10SMU
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
