Dream at Valkyries: WNBA, Oct 17, 2026

The Valkyries beat the Dream 68–64 at home on Oct 17, 2026.

Atlanta Dream30-14 · 15-7 on the road

64

Golden State Valkyries32-12 · 17-5 at home

68

FinalSat, Oct 17

Chase Center · San Francisco, CA

WNBA FinalsGame 1 · GS leads 1-0Bracket →

Spread

GS -2.5

(-106)

Total

154.5

ATL ML

+115

GS ML

-135

Closing line

3 books · best ATL +116 FanDuel · GS -130 DraftKings

Model's read

How the model's winner call for this game did, graded in public.

See the model’s call (graded) →

RecapProps (14)StatsHead to head

Line score◷History

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
ATL	22	17	17	8	64
GS	14	28	9	17	68

Top performersiEach team's three leading scorers in this game, with rebounds and assists. The full box score is below.◷History

Atlanta Dream

• Allisha GrayG

  19 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
  5-18 FG

  1-7 3PT
• Angel ReeseF

  14 pts · 12 reb · Double-double
  5-11 FG

  0-1 3PT
• Rhyne HowardG

  12 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
  3-14 FG

  2-9 3PT

Golden State Valkyries

• Gabby WilliamsF

  26 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
  8-22 FG

  3-11 3PT
• Kiah StokesC

  9 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast · 4 blk
  4-7 FG

  0-1 3PT
• Cecilia ZandalasiniF

  8 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast
  3-10 FG

  1-5 3PT

Box score◷History

every player+

ATL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT	+/-
Rhyne Howard	38	12	7	4	1	2	3	3-14	2-9	4-4	-2
Jordin Canada	38	8	5	7	2	0	3	3-9	0-1	2-2	-9
Angel Reese	34	14	12	0	2	1	4	5-11	0-1	4-7	+5
Allisha Gray	33	19	6	2	0	0	1	5-18	1-7	8-8	+4
Naz Hillmon	30	5	2	0	0	1	1	2-4	1-3	0-0	+7
DeWanna Bonner	13	2	1	1	0	0	0	1-2	0-1	0-0	-12
Isobel Borlase	12	4	2	1	0	1	0	2-5	0-2	0-0	-3
Totals		64	35	15	5	5	12	21-63	4-24	18-21

GS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT	+/-
Gabby Williams	33	26	4	2	1	0	2	8-22	3-11	7-8	+16
Veronica Burton	29	5	4	3	1	2	2	2-7	0-2	1-1	+6
Kiah Stokes	24	9	7	1	0	4	0	4-7	0-1	1-2	-1
Cecilia Zandalasini	20	8	1	1	1	1	2	3-10	1-5	1-3	-3
Kayla Thornton	7	0	3	1	0	0	0	0-2	0-2	0-0	-15
Kaila Charles	30	7	9	2	2	1	1	3-10	1-4	0-0	+11
Tiffany Hayes	24	3	6	4	1	1	1	1-12	1-5	0-0	0
Laeticia Amihere	14	5	5	0	1	1	0	2-2	0-0	1-2	+9
Kaitlyn Chen	10	5	1	1	0	0	0	2-5	1-2	0-0	-5
Janelle Salaun	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-1	0-1	0-0	-10
Totals		68	40	15	7	10	8	25-78	7-33	11-16

Starters first, then by minutes. +/- is the team's point margin while he was on the floor.

Team statsiTeam stats: green marks the better side; a longer bar is a bigger number, not always a better one.◷History

ATLGS

33.3%

Field goals?Made-attempted: away 21-63, home 25-78.

32.1%

16.7%

Three-pointers?Made-attempted: away 4-24, home 7-33.

21.2%

85.7%

Free throws?Made-attempted: away 18-21, home 11-16.

68.8%

35

Rebounds

40

7

Offensive rebounds

12

15

Assists

15

12

Turnovers?Fewer is better.

10

5

Steals

7

5

Blocks

10

30

Points in the paint

32

11

Fast-break points

6

14

Fouls?Fewer is better.

13

This game's box score totals; green marks the better side (fewer turnovers and fouls are better).

Shot mapiEvery charted field-goal attempt of the game: a dot for a make, an X for a miss. Filter by shot type or team.◷History

All shotsThreesPaint

Both teamsATLGS

Team	Made	FG%	3PT
ATL	21-63	33%	4-22 18%
GS	25-78	32%	7-33 21%

• made
• missed

From charted shot locations; free throws have none. Both teams are drawn at one basket. Made and FG% follow the shot type chosen above; 3PT is always the threes. Descriptive history of this game.

MarketiEach book's moneyline, spread and total (best price boxed), plus the no-vig implied win %.◇Market

3 books · lines as of the last update

ATL 45%No-vig win chanceiEach side's chance from the moneylines with the books' margin taken out. The market's view, not ours.55% GS

• BetMGM

  Moneyline

  ATL+115GS-135

  Spread

  GS -2.5 (-110)

  Total

  153.5Over-110Under-110

• DraftKings

  Moneyline

  ATL+110GS-130

  Spread

  GS -2.5 (-105)

  Total

  154.5Over-110Under-110

• FanDuel

  Moneyline

  ATL+116GS-136

  Spread

  GS -2.5 (-106)

  Total

  154.5Over-106Under-116

Book	ATL ML	GS ML	Spread	Total	Over	Under
BetMGM	+115	-135	GS -2.5 (-110)	153.5	-110	-110
DraftKings	+110	-130	GS -2.5 (-105)	154.5	-110	-110
FanDuel	+116	-136	GS -2.5 (-106)	154.5	-106	-116

Line movement

SpreadGS −2.5 → GS −2.5

first seen Oct 16close · Oct 17

Total154.5 → 154.5

first seen Oct 16close · Oct 17

MoneylineGS 57% → GS 55%

first seen Oct 16close · Oct 17

Closing line

Spread

GS −2.5

Total

154.5

Moneyline

GS 55%

Hover or tap a chart to read any hour; click to pin it.

Each line is the number most books post, a step at each hour a book changed one, since we first priced the game; the band is the lowest and highest number any book had up then (ring = first seen, dot = the close). Spread: higher = the home side laying more. The moneyline is the home side's win chance with the books' margin removed.

Going into the game · matchup numbers, form, rest+

Where each offense has the advantage: the four factorsiEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces in shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws, one bar per factor: longer = a better setup for the offense; volt = the offense ranks clearly better, orange = the defense does.◷History

A longer bar = a better setup for the offense: half from how high the offense ranks, half from how low the defense across from it ranks (of 15). A full bar is the best offense against the worst defense; the dashed tick is an even matchup. Biggest advantage first.

offense ranks 3+ places betterdefense ranks 3+ places betterno clear gap

→When ATL has the ballATL offense against GS defense

ATL has the clear advantage in offensive rebounding % and free throw rate; GS's defense has it in shooting.

• Offensive rebounding %ATL #2 vs GS #7
• Free throw rateATL #3 vs GS #8
• TurnoversATL #4 vs GS #2
• ShootingATL #8 vs GS #1

→When GS has the ballGS offense against ATL defense

ATL's defense has it in offensive rebounding %.

• TurnoversGS #1 vs ATL #1
• ShootingGS #12 vs ATL #11
• Free throw rateGS #13 vs ATL #11
• Offensive rebounding %GS #4 vs ATL #1

+Both ranks side by side, with every value

ranks betterranks worseStronger3+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 15 (#1 = best)

ATL offensevsGS defense

ATL offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · GS defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)

Shooting · effective FG%?Field-goal percentage with threes counted at 1.5; the defense's number is what it allows.

50.5%

#8

47.8%

Stronger#1

Turnovers · per 100 plays?Turnovers the offense commits (fewer is better) and the turnovers the defense forces.

14.0%

#4

16.9%

slight#2

Offensive rebounding %?Share of its own misses the offense rebounds; the defense's number is what it allows.

30.1%

#2Stronger

24.5%

#7

Free throw rate?Free throws made per field-goal attempt; the defense's number is what it allows.

26.8%

#3Stronger

23.8%

#8

GS offensevsATL defense

GS offense ranks better in 0 of 4 matchups · ATL defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even

Shooting · effective FG%?Field-goal percentage with threes counted at 1.5; the defense's number is what it allows.

49.9%

#12

53.1%

slight#11

Turnovers · per 100 plays?Turnovers the offense commits (fewer is better) and the turnovers the defense forces.· even

13.1%

#1

17.8%

#1

Offensive rebounding %?Share of its own misses the offense rebounds; the defense's number is what it allows.

26.8%

#4

20.1%

Stronger#1

Free throw rate?Free throws made per field-goal attempt; the defense's number is what it allows.

21.0%

#13

24.4%

slight#11

Season box-score numbers; ranks of 15 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.

Key numbers and mismatchesiHeadline ratings, then the biggest mismatches between one team's offense and the other's defense.◷History

ATLGS

+8.2 3rdNet rating?Points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions1st +9.0

108.6 5thOffensive rating?Points scored per 100 possessions7th 104.8

100.4 2ndDefensive rating?Points allowed per 100 possessions (rank 1 = allows least)1st 95.8

84.1 5thPace?Possessions per game (rank 1 = fastest)15th 78.4

Expected pace: about 81 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 15 teams, 1st = best.

Where one side has the better of it

• 
  ATL offensive rebounding

  ATL offense 30.1% (2nd) vs GS defense allowing 24.5% (7th)
  +5 spots
• 
  ATL getting to the line

  ATL offense 26.8% (3rd) vs GS defense allowing 23.8% (8th)
  +5 spots
• 
  GS 3-point shooting

  GS offense 34.4% (6th) vs ATL defense allowing 34.8% (11th)
  +5 spots

ContextiEach team's last ten days going into this game (filled = home, outline = road; travel distance is not tracked)◷History

last 10 days

TFSSMTWTFGame

ATL

NY

NY

NY

GS

2 days rest

TFSSMTWTFGame

GS

LV

LV

LV

ATL

2 days rest

homeroadday offthis gameFrom the schedule; travel distance is not tracked.

Crew chiefAngelica Suffren · also working Randy Richardson, Ashley Gloss, Maj Forsberg

His recent games+

Personal fouls

per game, both teams

35.8

▼ below the league average (37.9, −5.4%)

Free-throw attempts

per game, both teams

37.9

≈ in line with the league average (39.6)

Possessions

per team per game

81.6

≈ in line with the league average (82.2)

Counts per game across his last 40 games next to the league's over the same dates (bar: 90% range, dot: his average, line: the league's). History, not a forecast.

ATL · last 10

30-14 · 7 days rest

• Oct 9 @ NYW 85–83
• Oct 7 vs NYW 101–98
• Oct 4 vs NYW 92–82
• Sep 30 @ WSHW 93–75
• Sep 27 vs WSHW 92–77
• Sep 23 @ NYW 83–65
• Sep 21 @ NYW 95–84
• Sep 19 vs CHIW 106–81
• Sep 17 vs CONW 103–59
• Aug 30 vs MINW 89–81

10-0 in these

GS · last 10

32-12 · 7 days rest

• Oct 9 @ LVW 87–77
• Oct 7 vs LVW 83–81
• Oct 4 vs LVW 71–60
• Oct 2 vs DALW 77–73
• Sep 30 @ DALL 100–108
• Sep 27 vs DALW 104–80
• Sep 24 @ LAW 76–75
• Sep 22 @ PORL 82–90
• Sep 19 vs SEAW 70–57
• Sep 18 vs PORW 82–66

8-2 in these

From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links may be affiliate links; we may earn a commission if you sign up through them.