Landwehr vs Nallo
Mandel Nallo beat Nate Landwehr by KO/TKO in round 2 at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on Oct 17, 2026.
Rounds 1.5 · over +182 · under −220
5 US books
How it endsThe books' no-vig prices for every way the fight can end. The books price the round and the method separately (never a method inside a given round). Each number is the median chance across books with their margin removed; the price beside it is the best at a US sportsbook. The chance it is still going after a round is read off the round prices.Market
The books gave Nallo 73% to win; it went the distance 13% of the time, and the likeliest single ending was Nallo in round 1 (43.1%).
Outlined: the likeliest single ending. Still going: the chance it has not ended by the end of that round. Rounds line, no vig: over 1.5 rounds 33%. Tap a cell for its price.
How their last fights endedEach fighter's tracked fights before this one, oldest to newest.History
5-5 in the last 10. 3 of 5 wins inside the distance; 4 of 5 losses were finishes.
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Cub SwansonApr 2026
- LKO/TKO · R3vs Morgan CharrièreJul 2025
- LKO/TKO · R3vs Dooho ChoiDec 2024
- WKO/TKO · R1vs Jamall EmmersMar 2024
- LDecisionvs Dan IgeJun 2023
7-3 in the last 10. 7 of 7 wins inside the distance; 3 of 3 losses were finishes.
- LKO/TKO · R1vs Jai HerbertApr 2026
- WKO/TKO · R1vs Samuel SilvaSep 2025
- WSubmission · R1Samourai MMA 11: Chapitre 11Aug 2024
- WKO/TKO · R1BTC 24: ApexJun 2024
- WSubmission · R1MMA Mexico 1: Nallo vs. CanadaJul 2023
Fight statsEach fighter's own numbers from this bout. A longer bar is a bigger number; volt marks the higher one.History
The strike and takedown numbers for this bout have not been stored yet; they usually arrive within a day of the result.
Rates against the divisionEach fighter's striking and grappling rates from his box-scored fights; the tick on each bar is the division average and a full bar is the division's top 5%. Hover a row for what it measures. A rate with no box scores behind it reads no data, never a zero.History
- 5.4Strikes landed / min5.35.4Strikes landed / min5.3
- 5.7Strikes absorbed / minlower is better4.25.7Strikes absorbed / minlower is better4.2
- 46%Striking accuracy58%46%Striking accuracy58%
- 49%Striking defense54%49%Striking defense54%
- 0.17Knockdowns / 15 min1.690.17Knockdowns / 15 min1.69
- 0.8Takedowns / 15 min1.10.8Takedowns / 15 min1.1
- 42%Takedown accuracyno data42%Takedown accuracyno data
- 72%Takedown defense100%72%Takedown defense100%
- 0.7Sub. attempts / 15 min0.30.7Sub. attempts / 15 min0.3
- 0.03Ground advances / 15 min0.170.03Ground advances / 15 min0.17
Tick: Lightweight average (124 fighters with 3+ tracked fights). Bars start at zero; a full bar is the division's top 5%. The better number of each row is bold. Grey rates are a small sample: under 30 tracked minutes behind them.
Strike targets and paceStrike targets are the share of significant strikes to the head, body and legs. Pace is how long his tracked fights lasted and how often he finished early inside the first round.History
Nate Landwehr
Form: 1-4 in his last 5 · on L3. Since his last fight: 6 mo.
- Lvs Cub SwansonApr 12, 2026KO/TKO · R1 · UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulbergsig. str. 15/30 · abs. 37 · TD 0 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Lvs Morgan CharrièreJul 13, 2025KO/TKO · R3 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeirasig. str. 63/155 · abs. 67 · TD 0 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Lvs Dooho ChoiDec 8, 2024KO/TKO · R3 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakurasig. str. 25/67 · abs. 78 · TD 0 · KD 0 · sub 0
- Wvs Jamall EmmersMar 30, 2024KO/TKO · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorotsig. str. 37/76 · abs. 39 · TD 0 · KD 1 · sub 0
- Lvs Dan IgeJun 11, 2023Decision - Unanimous · R3 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldanasig. str. 74/195 · abs. 88 · TD 0/4 · KD 0 · sub 0
Mandel Nallo
Form: 4-1 in his last 5 · on L1. Since his last fight: 6 mo.
- Lvs Jai HerbertApr 19, 2026KO/TKO · R1 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malottsig. str. 16/31 · abs. 19 · TD 0 · KD 1 · sub 0
- Wvs Samuel SilvaSep 3, 2025KO/TKO · R1 · Dana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 4sig. str. 30/48 · abs. 9 · TD 0 · KD 1 · sub 0
- WSamourai MMA 11: Chapitre 11Aug 30, 2024Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1no stats
- WBTC 24: ApexJun 8, 2024KO/TKO · R1no stats
- WMMA Mexico 1: Nallo vs. CanadaJul 29, 2023Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1no stats
Landwehr: full history · 12 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs Cub SwansonUFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg | LKO/TKO · R1 | 15/30 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | vs Morgan CharrièreUFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira | LKO/TKO · R3 | 63/155 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-12-08 | vs Dooho ChoiUFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura | LKO/TKO · R3 | 25/67 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-03-30 | vs Jamall EmmersUFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot | WKO/TKO · R1 | 37/76 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2023-06-11 | vs Dan IgeUFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 74/195 | 88 | 0/4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-03-25 | UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen | WSubmission · R2 | 64/153 | — | 1/2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022-08-13 | vs David OnamaUFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz | WDecision - Majority · R3 | 91/185 | 71 | 3/4 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021-10-16 | vs Ludovit KleinUFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont | WSubmission · R3 | 71/130 | 42 | 1/2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021-02-20 | vs Julian ErosaUFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis | LKO/TKO · R1 | 9/14 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-05-16 | vs Darren ElkinsUFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 118/234 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020-01-25 | UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos | LKO/TKO · R1 | 4/9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019-06-28 | M-1 Challenge 102: Rakhmonov vs. Varejao | WDecision - Unanimous · R5 | no stats | ||||
Nallo: full history · 11 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | vs Jai HerbertUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott | LKO/TKO · R1 | 16/31 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | vs Samuel SilvaDana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 4 | WKO/TKO · R1 | 30/48 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2024-08-30 | Samourai MMA 11: Chapitre 11 | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2024-06-08 | BTC 24: Apex | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-07-29 | MMA Mexico 1: Nallo vs. Canada | WSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-05-03 | XMMA 6: Bash At The Beach | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2023-03-31 | Bellator 293: Golm vs. James | LSubmission · R3 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-06-24 | Bellator 282: Mousasi vs. Eblen | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2022-02-19 | Bellator 274: Gracie vs. Storley | LKO/TKO · R2 | no stats | ||||
| 2021-04-02 | Bellator 255: Pitbull vs. Sanchez 2 | WKO/TKO · R1 | no stats | ||||
| 2019-10-25 | Bellator 231: Mir vs. Nelson 2 | LKO/TKO · R3 | no stats | ||||
Line shop (closing prices)Each US sportsbook's moneyline and rounds line; bold = the best price on that side.
| Book | Nallo | Landwehr | Rounds | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | −275 Hard Rock | +260 BetMGM | 1.5 | +182 | −220 |
| BetMGM | −325 | +260 | — | — | — |
| DraftKings | −290 | +235 | 1.5 | +170 | −220 |
| FanDuel | −290 | +235 | 1.5 | +182 | −230 |
| Hard Rock | −275 | +220 | 2.5 | +400 | −650 |
| Caesars | −300 | +240 | — | — | — |
Line movementEach fighter's no-vig win chance from the median book, every hour since lines opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Median sportsbook win chance with the books' margin taken out (the same no-vig number as above, the two sides add to 100%), one point an hour since the line opened.
Fighter numbers are from tracked fights. Prices are the best at US sportsbooks and win chances take the margin out: the books' view, not a forecast. Descriptive data. Data and analytics only, not betting advice: any bet is your own decision, and we are not responsible for losses. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Sportsbook links are plain links, not affiliate links: no sportsbook pays us.