Rafael Tobias
"Bipolar"
14-3 (5 KO · 6 SUB · 3 DEC)
Light Heavyweight · 23 yrs · 6'2" · 74.5" reach · Orthodox · BRA
well-rounded
Output & defense
per-minute / per-15-min rates over 13 tracked UFC fights
Sig. strikes / min
2.8
Strike accuracy
33%
Absorbed / min
5.3
Strike defense
37%
Knockdowns / 15
0.11
Takedowns / 15
1.8
TD accuracy
40%
TD defense
100%
Sub attempts / 15
0.8
Ground adv. / 15
0.1
Pace & finishing
6.5
avg fight minutes
23%
go the distance
7
round-1 finish wins
8
finish wins (tracked)
strike targets: head 65% · body 26% · leg 9%
Probetrics vs Tobias's fights 1/1 winners called
2026-08-15 · picked Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO✓
Fight history 13 tracked
| Date | Opponent | Result | Sig. str. | Absorbed | TD | KD | Sub att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Lucas Fernando | LKO/TKO · R3 | 13/56 | 69 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Diyar Nurgozhay | LDecision - Unanimous · R3 | 39/101 | 94 | 2/8 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Jair de Oliveira | WSubmission · R1 | 13/42 | 15 | 1/1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025-04-12 | — | WKO/TKO · R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-01 | — | WKO/TKO · R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-21 | — | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-06 | — | WSubmission · R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-09 | — | WSubmission · R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-08 | — | LKO/TKO · R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-15 | — | WKO/TKO · R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-25 | — | WSubmission · R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-29 | — | WDecision - Unanimous · R3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-10 | — | WKO/TKO · R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Stats from official ESPN box scores over tracked UFC fights; career record covers all promotions. Model receipts show what Probetrics predicted before each fight — graded, not curated. 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.