The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Kansas City ChiefsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 2.2market LAC by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.2 pointsmarket 35
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 57% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Blaine Gabbert starting for Kansas City Chiefs, and the model prices that in.
KC has the advantage in passing: KC passing ranks #7, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into KC's #4.
KC has the advantage in big plays: KC explosive pass rate ranks #14, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into KC's #1.
Form: KC has the better last five games by 20.4 points a game (LAC -13.8, KC +6.6).
Home field is with LAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 2.2 against a market LAC by 3.5: 5.7 points of daylight in KC's favour. The model's total is 41.2 against a line of 35: 6.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 2.2 · market LAC by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC passing ranks #7, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into KC's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
KC rushing ranks #23, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into KC's #25.
Third down & red zone
KC
Slight advantage
KC third-down conversion ranks #6, LAC defends it at #14; the other way LAC #17 into KC's #5.
Big plays
KC
Clear advantage
KC explosive pass rate ranks #14, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into KC's #1.
Pass protection & rush
KC
Clear advantage
KC sack rate ranks #2, LAC defends it at #11; the other way LAC #12 into KC's #4.
Ball security
=
Even
LAC turnovers / game ranks #19, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #23 into LAC's #22.
Form (last 5)
KC
Clear advantage
LAC −13.8 per game over the last five, KC +6.6.
Market
LAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3.5; the model says KC by 2.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3.5 · model KC by 2.2
Mkt LAC 3.5
Model KC 2.2
← KC by 28tieLAC by 28 →
17.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 35 · model 41.2
Mkt 35
Model 41.2
20 pts4672 pts
17.3% of NFL games finish between 35 and 41.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
