The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Seattle SeahawksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 4.6market SEA by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.9 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 63% to win, with the market at SEA by 4.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Mason Rudolph starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: rushing favours PIT. PIT rushing ranks #12, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into PIT's #15. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 4.6 against a market SEA by 4.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 37.9 against a line of 40.5: 2.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 4.6 · market SEA by 4.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor PIT, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT passing ranks #25, SEA defends it at #27; the other way SEA #13 into PIT's #9.
Rushing game
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT rushing ranks #12, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into PIT's #15.
Third down & red zone
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT red-zone touchdown rate ranks #22, SEA defends it at #24; the other way SEA #25 into PIT's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #9, PIT defends it at #30; the other way PIT #24 into SEA's #26.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
SEA sack rate ranks #11, PIT defends it at #10; the other way PIT #14 into SEA's #12.
Ball security
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #5, SEA defends it at #21; the other way SEA #2 into PIT's #7.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Slight advantage
SEA −2.4 per game over the last five, PIT +1.2.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 4.5; the model says SEA by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 4.5 · model SEA by 4.6
Mkt SEA 4.5
Model SEA 4.6
← PIT by 28tieSEA by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 37.9
Mkt 40.5
Model 37.9
20 pts4672 pts
7.8% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 37.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
