The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%San Francisco 49ersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 14.4market SF by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.0 pointsmarket 49
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 86% to win, with the market at SF by 14.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Sam Howell starting for Washington Commanders, and the model prices that in.
SF has the advantage in passing: SF passing ranks #1, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into SF's #7.
SF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SF third-down conversion ranks #4, WSH defends it at #26; the other way WSH #26 into SF's #27.
Form: SF has the better last five games by 20.8 points a game (WSH -17.0, SF +3.8).
Home field is with WSH, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 14.4 against a market SF by 14: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 57.0 against a line of 49: 8.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 14.4 · market SF by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF passing ranks #1, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into SF's #7.
Rushing game
SF
Clear advantage
SF rushing ranks #1, WSH defends it at #21; the other way WSH #19 into SF's #24.
Third down & red zone
SF
Clear advantage
SF third-down conversion ranks #4, WSH defends it at #26; the other way WSH #26 into SF's #27.
Big plays
SF
Clear advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #1, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #25 into SF's #3.
Pass protection & rush
SF
Clear advantage
SF sack rate ranks #8, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #28 into SF's #21.
Ball security
SF
Clear advantage
SF turnovers / game ranks #9, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into SF's #4.
Form (last 5)
SF
Clear advantage
WSH −17.0 per game over the last five, SF +3.8.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 14; the model says SF by 14.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 14 · model SF by 14.4
Mkt SF 14
Model SF 14.4
← SF by 28tieWSH by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 14, a number 5.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49 · model 57.0
Mkt 49
Model 57.0
20 pts4672 pts
15.5% of NFL games finish between 49 and 57.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
