The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Chicago BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 1.3market CHI by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.6 pointsmarket 39
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 54% to win, with the market at CHI by 3.
CHI has the advantage in rushing: CHI rushing ranks #9, ATL defends it at #1; the other way ATL #27 into CHI's #4.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ATL. ATL sack rate ranks #22, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into ATL's #18. The pick still lands on CHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 14.6 points a game (CHI +7.0, ATL -7.6).
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 1.3 against a market CHI by 3: 1.7 points of daylight in ATL's favour. The model's total is 34.6 against a line of 39: 4.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 1.3 · market CHI by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
CHI passing ranks #23, ATL defends it at #19; the other way ATL #22 into CHI's #16.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, ATL defends it at #1; the other way ATL #27 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, CHI defends it at #29; the other way CHI #10 into ATL's #3.
Big plays
=
Even
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, ATL defends it at #18; the other way ATL #17 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL sack rate ranks #22, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into ATL's #18.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI +7.0 per game over the last five, ATL −7.6.
Market
CHI
Slight advantage
Consensus has CHI by 3; the model says CHI by 1.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CHI by 3 · model CHI by 1.3
Mkt CHI 3
Model CHI 1.3
← ATL by 28tieCHI by 28 →
2.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39 · model 34.6
Mkt 39
Model 34.6
20 pts4672 pts
9.6% of NFL games finish between 39 and 34.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
