The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 14.2market BUF by 15
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.8 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 85% to win, with the market at BUF by 15.
BUF has the advantage in passing: BUF passing ranks #2, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into BUF's #6.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 10.0 points a game (BUF +5.2, NE -4.8).
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 14.2 against a market BUF by 15: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 37.8 against a line of 40: 2.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 14.2 · market BUF by 15
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #2, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into BUF's #6.
Rushing game
=
Even
NE rushing ranks #20, BUF defends it at #23; the other way BUF #2 into NE's #2.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BUF third-down conversion ranks #2, NE defends it at #7; the other way NE #31 into BUF's #18.
Big plays
=
Even
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #21, NE defends it at #13; the other way NE #31 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #25 into BUF's #5.
Ball security
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #22, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #29 into BUF's #2.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +5.2 per game over the last five, NE −4.8.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 15; the model says BUF by 14.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 15 · model BUF by 14.2
Mkt BUF 15
Model BUF 14.2
← NE by 28tieBUF by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 15 and 14.2, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 15. The market is on 15, a number 1.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 37.8
Mkt 40
Model 37.8
20 pts4672 pts
4.3% of NFL games finish between 40 and 37.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
