The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Dallas CowboysSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 3.9market DAL by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.8 pointsmarket 53
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 61% to win, with the market at DAL by 5.5.
DAL has the advantage in passing: DAL passing ranks #3, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #6 into DAL's #8.
Counterpoint: big plays favours DET. DET explosive rush rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #20; the other way DAL #24 into DET's #4. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 3.9 against a market DAL by 5.5: 1.6 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 58.8 against a line of 53: 5.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 3.9 · market DAL by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #3, DET defends it at #29; the other way DET #6 into DAL's #8.
Rushing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET rushing ranks #4, DAL defends it at #12; the other way DAL #10 into DET's #6.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
DAL third-down conversion ranks #1, DET defends it at #11; the other way DET #7 into DAL's #15.
Big plays
DET
Slight advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #20; the other way DAL #24 into DET's #4.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #10, DET defends it at #22; the other way DET #4 into DAL's #8.
Ball security
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #6, DET defends it at #17; the other way DET #15 into DAL's #13.
Form (last 5)
DET
Slight advantage
DAL −2.0 per game over the last five, DET +3.0.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 5.5; the model says DAL by 3.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 5.5 · model DAL by 3.9
Mkt DAL 5.5
Model DAL 3.9
← DET by 28tieDAL by 28 →
4.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 53 · model 58.8
Mkt 53
Model 58.8
20 pts4672 pts
9.9% of NFL games finish between 53 and 58.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
