The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%San Francisco 49ersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 6.1market SF by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.6 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 67% to win, with the market at SF by 6.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Lamar Jackson starting for Baltimore Ravens, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 8.4 points a game (SF +3.8, BAL +12.2).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 6.1 against a market SF by 6.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 48.6 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 6.1 · market SF by 6.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BAL, but the model still picks SF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
SF passing ranks #1, BAL defends it at #2; the other way BAL #10 into SF's #7.
Rushing game
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL rushing ranks #3, SF defends it at #24; the other way SF #1 into BAL's #14.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL third-down conversion ranks #11, SF defends it at #27; the other way SF #4 into BAL's #9.
Big plays
=
Even
SF explosive pass rate ranks #1, BAL defends it at #2; the other way BAL #12 into SF's #3.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
SF sack rate ranks #8, BAL defends it at #7; the other way BAL #23 into SF's #21.
Ball security
SF
Slight advantage
SF turnovers / game ranks #9, BAL defends it at #9; the other way BAL #16 into SF's #4.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
SF +3.8 per game over the last five, BAL +12.2.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 6.5; the model says SF by 6.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 6.5 · model SF by 6.1
Mkt SF 6.5
Model SF 6.1
← BAL by 28tieSF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 48.6
Mkt 47.5
Model 48.6
20 pts4672 pts
2.7% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 48.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
