The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Chicago BearsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 4.5market CHI by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.2 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 63% to win, with the market at CHI by 4.5.
CHI has the advantage in rushing: CHI rushing ranks #9, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #6 into CHI's #4.
CHI has the advantage in passing: CHI passing ranks #23, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #27 into CHI's #16.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ARI. ARI sack rate ranks #21, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into ARI's #26. The pick still lands on CHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 9.0 points a game (CHI +7.0, ARI -2.0).
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 4.5 against a market CHI by 4.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 43.2 against a line of 42: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 4.5 · market CHI by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI passing ranks #23, ARI defends it at #31; the other way ARI #27 into CHI's #16.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #6 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ARI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, CHI defends it at #31; the other way CHI #15 into ARI's #23.
Big plays
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, ARI defends it at #23; the other way ARI #27 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
ARI
Slight advantage
ARI sack rate ranks #21, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into ARI's #26.
Ball security
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, ARI defends it at #29; the other way ARI #11 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI +7.0 per game over the last five, ARI −2.0.
Market
CHI
Clear advantage
Consensus has CHI by 4.5; the model says CHI by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CHI by 4.5 · model CHI by 4.5
Mkt CHI 4.5
Model CHI 4.5
← ARI by 28tieCHI by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 43.2
Mkt 42
Model 43.2
20 pts4672 pts
3.5% of NFL games finish between 42 and 43.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
