The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 1.1market SEA by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.2 pointsmarket 42
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 53% to win, with the market at SEA by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Geno Smith starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #13, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #21 into SEA's #27.
Counterpoint: rushing favours TEN. TEN rushing ranks #13, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into TEN's #13. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with TEN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 1.1 against a market SEA by 3: 1.9 points of daylight in TEN's favour. The model's total is 41.2 against a line of 42: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 1.1 · market SEA by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA passing ranks #13, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #21 into SEA's #27.
Rushing game
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN rushing ranks #13, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into TEN's #13.
Third down & red zone
TEN
Clear advantage
TEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #28, SEA defends it at #24; the other way SEA #25 into TEN's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
TEN explosive pass rate ranks #8, SEA defends it at #26; the other way SEA #9 into TEN's #14.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, TEN defends it at #14; the other way TEN #31 into SEA's #12.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #2, TEN defends it at #31; the other way TEN #10 into SEA's #21.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
TEN −4.0 per game over the last five, SEA −2.4.
Market
SEA
Slight advantage
Consensus has SEA by 3; the model says SEA by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 3 · model SEA by 1.1
Mkt SEA 3
Model SEA 1.1
← SEA by 28tieTEN by 28 →
2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 42 · model 41.2
Mkt 42
Model 41.2
20 pts4672 pts
No whole-number total falls between 42 and 41.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
