The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Philadelphia EaglesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PHI by 4.5market PHI by 5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.5 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles at 63% to win, with the market at PHI by 5.
PHI has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PHI third-down conversion ranks #5, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #23 into PHI's #30.
PHI has the advantage in rushing: PHI rushing ranks #8, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into PHI's #30.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours SEA. SEA turnovers / game ranks #2, PHI defends it at #26; the other way PHI #25 into SEA's #21. The pick still lands on PHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with SEA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PHI by 4.5 against a market PHI by 5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 52.5 against a line of 46: 6.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PHI by 4.5 · market PHI by 5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SEA, but the model still picks PHI. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
PHI passing ranks #11, SEA defends it at #27; the other way SEA #13 into PHI's #28.
Rushing game
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI rushing ranks #8, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into PHI's #30.
Third down & red zone
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI third-down conversion ranks #5, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #23 into PHI's #30.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #9, PHI defends it at #27; the other way PHI #18 into SEA's #18.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, PHI defends it at #24; the other way PHI #13 into SEA's #12.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #2, PHI defends it at #26; the other way PHI #25 into SEA's #21.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA −2.4 per game over the last five, PHI −7.8.
Market
PHI
Clear advantage
Consensus has PHI by 5; the model says PHI by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PHI by 5 · model PHI by 4.5
Mkt PHI 5
Model PHI 4.5
← PHI by 28tieSEA by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 5 and 4.5, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 5. The market is on 5, a number 4.0% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 52.5
Mkt 46
Model 52.5
20 pts4672 pts
17.0% of NFL games finish between 46 and 52.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
