The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 0.2market BUF by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.7 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 51% to win, with the market at BUF by 2.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Josh Allen starting for Buffalo Bills, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours BUF. BUF sack rate ranks #1, DAL defends it at #8; the other way DAL #10 into BUF's #5. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 7.2 points a game (BUF +5.2, DAL -2.0).
Home field is with BUF, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 0.2 against a market BUF by 2: 2.2 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 55.7 against a line of 49.5: 6.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 0.2 · market BUF by 2
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUF, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
BUF passing ranks #2, DAL defends it at #8; the other way DAL #3 into BUF's #6.
Rushing game
=
Even
DAL rushing ranks #10, BUF defends it at #23; the other way BUF #2 into DAL's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, DAL defends it at #22; the other way DAL #12 into BUF's #20.
Big plays
=
Even
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #21, DAL defends it at #19; the other way DAL #11 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, DAL defends it at #8; the other way DAL #10 into BUF's #5.
Ball security
=
Even
DAL turnovers / game ranks #6, BUF defends it at #2; the other way BUF #22 into DAL's #13.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +5.2 per game over the last five, DAL −2.0.
Market
BUF
Slight advantage
Consensus has BUF by 2; the model says DAL by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 2 · model DAL by 0.2
Mkt BUF 2
Model DAL 0.2
← DAL by 28tieBUF by 28 →
2.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 55.7
Mkt 49.5
Model 55.7
20 pts4672 pts
14.4% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 55.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
