The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Tennessee TitansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEN by 2.9market TEN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.9 pointsmarket 38
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Titans at 58% to win, with the market at TEN by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Case Keenum starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
TEN has the advantage in rushing: TEN rushing ranks #13, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into TEN's #13.
Counterpoint: passing favours HOU. HOU passing ranks #12, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #21 into HOU's #13. The pick still lands on TEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (TEN -4.0, HOU +4.0).
Home field is with TEN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TEN by 2.9 against a market TEN by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 43.9 against a line of 38: 5.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEN by 2.9 · market TEN by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks TEN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #12, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #21 into HOU's #13.
Rushing game
TEN
Slight advantage
TEN rushing ranks #13, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into TEN's #13.
Third down & red zone
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU third-down conversion ranks #20, TEN defends it at #16; the other way TEN #28 into HOU's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
TEN explosive pass rate ranks #8, HOU defends it at #21; the other way HOU #2 into TEN's #14.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #17, TEN defends it at #14; the other way TEN #31 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #1, TEN defends it at #31; the other way TEN #10 into HOU's #20.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
TEN −4.0 per game over the last five, HOU +4.0.
Market
TEN
Slight advantage
Consensus has TEN by 3; the model says TEN by 2.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket TEN by 3 · model TEN by 2.9
Mkt TEN 3
Model TEN 2.9
← HOU by 28tieTEN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38 · model 43.9
Mkt 38
Model 43.9
20 pts4672 pts
14.5% of NFL games finish between 38 and 43.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
