The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Kansas City ChiefsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 6.5market KC by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
27.9 pointsmarket 39.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 69% to win, with the market at KC by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Patrick Mahomes starting for Kansas City Chiefs, and the model prices that in.
KC has the advantage in passing: KC passing ranks #7, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into KC's #4.
KC has the advantage in big plays: KC explosive pass rate ranks #14, NE defends it at #13; the other way NE #31 into KC's #1.
Counterpoint: rushing favours NE. NE rushing ranks #20, KC defends it at #25; the other way KC #23 into NE's #2. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NE has 3 more days since its last game (NE 10d, KC 7d).
Form: KC has the better last five games by 11.4 points a game (NE -4.8, KC +6.6).
Home field is with NE, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 6.5 against a market KC by 10: 3.5 points of daylight in NE's favour. The model's total is 27.9 against a line of 39.5: 11.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 6.5 · market KC by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC passing ranks #7, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into KC's #4.
Rushing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE rushing ranks #20, KC defends it at #25; the other way KC #23 into NE's #2.
Third down & red zone
KC
Slight advantage
KC third-down conversion ranks #6, NE defends it at #7; the other way NE #31 into KC's #5.
Big plays
KC
Clear advantage
KC explosive pass rate ranks #14, NE defends it at #13; the other way NE #31 into KC's #1.
Pass protection & rush
KC
Clear advantage
KC sack rate ranks #2, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #25 into KC's #4.
Ball security
KC
Slight advantage
KC turnovers / game ranks #23, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #29 into KC's #23.
Form (last 5)
KC
Clear advantage
NE −4.8 per game over the last five, KC +6.6.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 10; the model says KC by 6.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 10 · model KC by 6.5
Mkt KC 10
Model KC 6.5
← KC by 28tieNE by 28 →
6.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39.5 · model 27.9
Mkt 39.5
Model 27.9
20 pts4672 pts
24.7% of NFL games finish between 39.5 and 27.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
