The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%Green Bay PackersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 4.9market GB by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.9 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 64% to win, with the market at GB by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Baker Mayfield starting for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the model prices that in.
No single matchup area stands out; the call rests on the teams' overall results this season, adjusted for who they played.
Home field is with GB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 4.9 against a market GB by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.9 against a line of 41.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 4.9 · market GB by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #4, TB defends it at #22; the other way TB #9 into GB's #23.
Rushing game
TB
Slight advantage
TB rushing ranks #26, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #11 into TB's #5.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TB third-down conversion ranks #9, GB defends it at #28; the other way GB #3 into TB's #21.
Big plays
=
Even
GB explosive pass rate ranks #7, TB defends it at #27; the other way TB #6 into GB's #20.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Slight advantage
GB sack rate ranks #3, TB defends it at #15; the other way TB #18 into GB's #16.
Ball security
=
Even
TB turnovers / game ranks #13, GB defends it at #24; the other way GB #8 into TB's #16.
Form (last 5)
GB
Slight advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, TB +6.4.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 4; the model says GB by 4.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 4 · model GB by 4.9
Mkt GB 4
Model GB 4.9
← TB by 28tieGB by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 4 and 4.9, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 4. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 42.9
Mkt 41.5
Model 42.9
20 pts4672 pts
1.7% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 42.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
