The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Detroit LionsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 3.3market DET by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.9 pointsmarket 49
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 60% to win, with the market at DET by 5.5.
DET has the advantage in rushing: DET rushing ranks #4, DEN defends it at #19; the other way DEN #17 into DET's #6.
DET has the advantage in big plays: DET explosive rush rate ranks #4, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #11 into DET's #4.
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 3.3 against a market DET by 5.5: 2.2 points of daylight in DEN's favour. The model's total is 50.9 against a line of 49: 1.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 3.3 · market DET by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET passing ranks #6, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #20 into DET's #29.
Rushing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET rushing ranks #4, DEN defends it at #19; the other way DEN #17 into DET's #6.
Third down & red zone
DET
Slight advantage
DET red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, DEN defends it at #21; the other way DEN #19 into DET's #30.
Big plays
DET
Clear advantage
DET explosive rush rate ranks #4, DEN defends it at #26; the other way DEN #11 into DET's #4.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Clear advantage
DET sack rate ranks #4, DEN defends it at #19; the other way DEN #27 into DET's #22.
Ball security
=
Even
DEN turnovers / game ranks #17, DET defends it at #17; the other way DET #15 into DEN's #14.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
DET +3.0 per game over the last five, DEN −3.4.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 5.5; the model says DET by 3.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 5.5 · model DET by 3.3
Mkt DET 5.5
Model DET 3.3
← DEN by 28tieDET by 28 →
4.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49 · model 50.9
Mkt 49
Model 50.9
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 49 and 50.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
