The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Houston TexansSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 3.7market HOU by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.8 pointsmarket 33.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 61% to win, with the market at HOU by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Zach Wilson starting for New York Jets, and the model prices that in.
HOU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: HOU third-down conversion ranks #20, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into HOU's #6.
HOU has the advantage in big plays: HOU explosive rush rate ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #16; the other way NYJ #28 into HOU's #12.
Home field is with NYJ, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 3.7 against a market HOU by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 34.8 against a line of 33.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 3.7 · market HOU by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU passing ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #3; the other way NYJ #32 into HOU's #13.
Rushing game
=
Even
HOU rushing ranks #28, NYJ defends it at #8; the other way NYJ #29 into HOU's #7.
Third down & red zone
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU third-down conversion ranks #20, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into HOU's #6.
Big plays
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU explosive rush rate ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #16; the other way NYJ #28 into HOU's #12.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
HOU sack rate ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #2; the other way NYJ #29 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #1, NYJ defends it at #6; the other way NYJ #28 into HOU's #20.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Slight advantage
NYJ −1.4 per game over the last five, HOU +4.0.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 3.5; the model says HOU by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 3.5 · model HOU by 3.7
Mkt HOU 3.5
Model HOU 3.7
← HOU by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 33.5 · model 34.8
Mkt 33.5
Model 34.8
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 33.5 and 34.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
