The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Cincinnati BengalsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 6.0market CIN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.1 pointsmarket 45
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 67% to win, with the market at CIN by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jake Browning starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #10, IND defends it at #17; the other way IND #24 into CIN's #10.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours IND. IND sack rate ranks #15, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into IND's #3. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 6.0 against a market CIN by 3: 3.0 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 53.1 against a line of 45: 8.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 6.0 · market CIN by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
IND passing ranks #16, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into IND's #20.
Rushing game
IND
Slight advantage
IND rushing ranks #18, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #16 into IND's #16.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #10, IND defends it at #17; the other way IND #24 into CIN's #10.
Big plays
IND
Clear advantage
IND explosive rush rate ranks #7, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #13 into IND's #7.
Pass protection & rush
IND
Clear advantage
IND sack rate ranks #15, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into IND's #3.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #3, IND defends it at #15; the other way IND #14 into CIN's #11.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN +1.8 per game over the last five, IND −4.6.
Market
CIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has CIN by 3; the model says CIN by 6.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 3 · model CIN by 6.0
Mkt CIN 3
Model CIN 6.0
← IND by 28tieCIN by 28 →
8.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45 · model 53.1
Mkt 45
Model 53.1
20 pts4672 pts
20.7% of NFL games finish between 45 and 53.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
