The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%Pittsburgh SteelersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 9.7market PIT by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
20.9 pointsmarket 30
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 76% to win, with the market at PIT by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Bailey Zappe starting for New England Patriots, and the model prices that in.
PIT has the advantage in passing: PIT passing ranks #25, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into PIT's #9.
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 9.7 against a market PIT by 6: 3.7 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 20.9 against a line of 30: 9.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 9.7 · market PIT by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT passing ranks #25, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into PIT's #9.
Rushing game
=
Even
NE rushing ranks #20, PIT defends it at #15; the other way PIT #12 into NE's #2.
Third down & red zone
NE
Slight advantage
NE red-zone touchdown rate ranks #11, PIT defends it at #5; the other way PIT #22 into NE's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #6, NE defends it at #2; the other way NE #31 into PIT's #11.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #14, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #25 into PIT's #10.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #5, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #29 into PIT's #7.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT +1.2 per game over the last five, NE −4.8.
Market
PIT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PIT by 6; the model says PIT by 9.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 6 · model PIT by 9.7
Mkt PIT 6
Model PIT 9.7
← NE by 28tiePIT by 28 →
7.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 30 · model 20.9
Mkt 30
Model 20.9
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 30 and 20.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
