The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Jacksonville JaguarsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
JAX by 5.7market JAX by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.7 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars at 66% to win, with the market at JAX by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jake Browning starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
JAX has the advantage in big plays: JAX explosive pass rate ranks #20, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #26 into JAX's #6.
JAX has the advantage in passing: JAX passing ranks #19, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into JAX's #11.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CIN. CIN turnovers / game ranks #3, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #27 into CIN's #11. The pick still lands on JAX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with JAX, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it JAX by 5.7 against a market JAX by 10: 4.3 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 43.7 against a line of 41: 2.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model JAX by 5.7 · market JAX by 10
ⓘMost of these areas favor CIN, but the model still picks JAX. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX passing ranks #19, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into JAX's #11.
Rushing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rushing ranks #16, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into CIN's #27.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #10, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #21 into CIN's #10.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #20, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #26 into JAX's #6.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
JAX sack rate ranks #9, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into JAX's #27.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #3, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #27 into CIN's #11.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Slight advantage
JAX −4.0 per game over the last five, CIN +1.8.
Market
JAX
Clear advantage
Consensus has JAX by 10; the model says JAX by 5.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 10 · model JAX by 5.7
Mkt JAX 10
Model JAX 5.7
← CIN by 28tieJAX by 28 →
11.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 43.7
Mkt 41
Model 43.7
20 pts4672 pts
5.2% of NFL games finish between 41 and 43.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
