The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Kansas City ChiefsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 2.6market KC by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.9 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 58% to win, with the market at KC by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Patrick Mahomes starting for Kansas City Chiefs, and the model prices that in.
KC has the advantage in passing: KC passing ranks #7, GB defends it at #23; the other way GB #4 into KC's #4.
KC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: KC third-down conversion ranks #6, GB defends it at #28; the other way GB #3 into KC's #5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours GB. GB turnovers / game ranks #8, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #23 into GB's #24. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: GB has 3 more days since its last game (GB 10d, KC 7d).
Home field is with GB, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 2.6 against a market KC by 5.5: 2.9 points of daylight in GB's favour. The model's total is 35.9 against a line of 43.5: 7.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 2.6 · market KC by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC passing ranks #7, GB defends it at #23; the other way GB #4 into KC's #4.
Rushing game
GB
Slight advantage
GB rushing ranks #11, KC defends it at #25; the other way KC #23 into GB's #26.
Third down & red zone
KC
Slight advantage
KC third-down conversion ranks #6, GB defends it at #28; the other way GB #3 into KC's #5.
Big plays
KC
Slight advantage
KC explosive pass rate ranks #14, GB defends it at #20; the other way GB #7 into KC's #1.
Pass protection & rush
KC
Slight advantage
KC sack rate ranks #2, GB defends it at #16; the other way GB #3 into KC's #4.
Ball security
GB
Slight advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #8, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #23 into GB's #24.
Form (last 5)
GB
Slight advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, KC +6.6.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 5.5; the model says KC by 2.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 5.5 · model KC by 2.6
Mkt KC 5.5
Model KC 2.6
← KC by 28tieGB by 28 →
11.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 35.9
Mkt 43.5
Model 35.9
20 pts4672 pts
22.5% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 35.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
