The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%New York JetsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 2.9market ATL by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.0 pointsmarket 33
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 59% to win, with the market at ATL by 2.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Desmond Ridder starting for Atlanta Falcons, and the model prices that in.
NYJ has the advantage in passing: NYJ passing ranks #32, ATL defends it at #19; the other way ATL #22 into NYJ's #3.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours ATL. ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into ATL's #3. The pick still lands on NYJ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NYJ has 2 more days since its last game (NYJ 9d, ATL 7d).
Home field is with NYJ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 2.9 against a market ATL by 2: 4.9 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 35.0 against a line of 33: 2.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 2.9 · market ATL by 2
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ passing ranks #32, ATL defends it at #19; the other way ATL #22 into NYJ's #3.
Rushing game
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL rushing ranks #27, NYJ defends it at #8; the other way NYJ #29 into ATL's #1.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into ATL's #3.
Big plays
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL explosive rush rate ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #16; the other way NYJ #28 into ATL's #8.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #29, ATL defends it at #18; the other way ATL #22 into NYJ's #2.
Ball security
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ turnovers / game ranks #28, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into NYJ's #6.
Form (last 5)
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ −1.4 per game over the last five, ATL −7.6.
Market
ATL
Slight advantage
Consensus has ATL by 2; the model says NYJ by 2.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ATL by 2 · model NYJ by 2.9
Mkt ATL 2
Model NYJ 2.9
← ATL by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 33 · model 35.0
Mkt 33
Model 35.0
20 pts4672 pts
4.2% of NFL games finish between 33 and 35.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
