The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%New York GiantsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYG by 1.2market NE by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
31.6 pointsmarket 36.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Giants at 54% to win, with the market at NE by 4.5.
NYG has the advantage in passing: NYG passing ranks #28, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into NYG's #12.
Counterpoint: rushing favours NE. NE rushing ranks #20, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #31 into NE's #2. The pick still lands on NYG because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NE has 7 more days since its last game (NYG 7d, NE 14d).
Home field is with NYG, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYG by 1.2 against a market NE by 4.5: 5.7 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 31.6 against a line of 36.5: 4.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYG by 1.2 · market NE by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG passing ranks #28, NE defends it at #17; the other way NE #31 into NYG's #12.
Rushing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE rushing ranks #20, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #31 into NE's #2.
Third down & red zone
NE
Clear advantage
NE red-zone touchdown rate ranks #11, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #31 into NE's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
NE explosive rush rate ranks #31, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #15 into NE's #2.
Pass protection & rush
NE
Slight advantage
NE sack rate ranks #25, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #32 into NE's #28.
Ball security
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #12, NE defends it at #28; the other way NE #29 into NYG's #3.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG −1.6 per game over the last five, NE −4.8.
Market
NE
Clear advantage
Consensus has NE by 4.5; the model says NYG by 1.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 4.5 · model NYG by 1.2
Mkt NE 4.5
Model NYG 1.2
← NE by 28tieNYG by 28 →
16.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 36.5 · model 31.6
Mkt 36.5
Model 31.6
20 pts4672 pts
11.3% of NFL games finish between 36.5 and 31.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
