The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Cincinnati BengalsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 3.7market PIT by 2
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.9 pointsmarket 36
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 61% to win, with the market at PIT by 2.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jake Browning starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours PIT. PIT sack rate ranks #14, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into PIT's #10. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: CIN has 3 more days since its last game (CIN 10d, PIT 7d).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 3.7 against a market PIT by 2: 5.7 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 37.9 against a line of 36: 1.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 3.7 · market PIT by 2
ⓘMost of these areas favor PIT, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT passing ranks #25, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into PIT's #9.
Rushing game
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT rushing ranks #12, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #16 into PIT's #15.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #10, PIT defends it at #5; the other way PIT #22 into CIN's #10.
Big plays
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #6, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #13 into PIT's #11.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #14, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into PIT's #10.
Ball security
=
Even
PIT turnovers / game ranks #5, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #3 into PIT's #7.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
CIN +1.8 per game over the last five, PIT +1.2.
Market
PIT
Slight advantage
Consensus has PIT by 2; the model says CIN by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 2 · model CIN by 3.7
Mkt PIT 2
Model CIN 3.7
← PIT by 28tieCIN by 28 →
14.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 2, a number 4.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 36 · model 37.9
Mkt 36
Model 37.9
20 pts4672 pts
3.5% of NFL games finish between 36 and 37.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
