The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
84%Dallas CowboysStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 13.6market DAL by 13
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.7 pointsmarket 48
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 84% to win, with the market at DAL by 13.
DAL has the advantage in passing: DAL passing ranks #3, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into DAL's #8.
DAL has the advantage in rushing: DAL rushing ranks #10, WSH defends it at #21; the other way WSH #19 into DAL's #12.
Form: DAL has the better last five games by 15.0 points a game (DAL -2.0, WSH -17.0).
Home field is with DAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 13.6 against a market DAL by 13: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 55.7 against a line of 48: 7.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 13.6 · market DAL by 13
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL passing ranks #3, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into DAL's #8.
Rushing game
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL rushing ranks #10, WSH defends it at #21; the other way WSH #19 into DAL's #12.
Third down & red zone
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL third-down conversion ranks #1, WSH defends it at #26; the other way WSH #26 into DAL's #15.
Big plays
=
Even
DAL explosive pass rate ranks #11, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #25 into DAL's #19.
Pass protection & rush
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL sack rate ranks #10, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #28 into DAL's #8.
Ball security
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL turnovers / game ranks #6, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into DAL's #13.
Form (last 5)
DAL
Clear advantage
DAL −2.0 per game over the last five, WSH −17.0.
Market
DAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has DAL by 13; the model says DAL by 13.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 13 · model DAL by 13.6
Mkt DAL 13
Model DAL 13.6
← WSH by 28tieDAL by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 13 and 13.6, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 13. The market is on 13, a number 2.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48 · model 55.7
Mkt 48
Model 55.7
20 pts4672 pts
16.7% of NFL games finish between 48 and 55.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
