The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Miami DolphinsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 8.4market MIA by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.2 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Dolphins at 73% to win, with the market at MIA by 14.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aidan O'Connell starting for Las Vegas Raiders, and the model prices that in.
MIA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, LV defends it at #27; the other way LV #26 into MIA's #26.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #5, LV defends it at #11; the other way LV #24 into MIA's #10.
Rest: MIA has 7 more days since its last game (MIA 14d, LV 7d).
Form: LV has the better last five games by 17.2 points a game (MIA -6.2, LV +11.0).
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 8.4 against a market MIA by 14: 5.6 points of daylight in LV's favour. The model's total is 48.2 against a line of 44.5: 3.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 8.4 · market MIA by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA passing ranks #5, LV defends it at #10; the other way LV #24 into MIA's #15.
Rushing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA rushing ranks #5, LV defends it at #11; the other way LV #24 into MIA's #10.
Third down & red zone
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #3, LV defends it at #27; the other way LV #26 into MIA's #26.
Big plays
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA explosive rush rate ranks #1, LV defends it at #14; the other way LV #30 into MIA's #1.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #5, LV defends it at #13; the other way LV #19 into MIA's #1.
Ball security
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #24, LV defends it at #18; the other way LV #20 into MIA's #8.
Form (last 5)
LV
Clear advantage
MIA −6.2 per game over the last five, LV +11.0.
Market
MIA
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIA by 14; the model says MIA by 8.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 14 · model MIA by 8.4
Mkt MIA 14
Model MIA 8.4
← LV by 28tieMIA by 28 →
7.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 5.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 48.2
Mkt 44.5
Model 48.2
20 pts4672 pts
10.8% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 48.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
