The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Seattle SeahawksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 5.8market SEA by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.2 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 67% to win, with the market at SEA by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Geno Smith starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #13, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into SEA's #27.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive pass rate ranks #9, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #25 into SEA's #26.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours WSH. WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, SEA defends it at #24; the other way SEA #25 into WSH's #18. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 14.6 points a game (SEA -2.4, WSH -17.0).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 5.8 against a market SEA by 6: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 45.2 against a line of 44: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 5.8 · market SEA by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #13, WSH defends it at #32; the other way WSH #26 into SEA's #27.
Rushing game
=
Even
WSH rushing ranks #19, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into WSH's #21.
Third down & red zone
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, SEA defends it at #24; the other way SEA #25 into WSH's #18.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #9, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #25 into SEA's #26.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #28 into SEA's #12.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #2, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #30 into SEA's #21.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA −2.4 per game over the last five, WSH −17.0.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 6; the model says SEA by 5.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 6 · model SEA by 5.8
Mkt SEA 6
Model SEA 5.8
← WSH by 28tieSEA by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 45.2
Mkt 44
Model 45.2
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 44 and 45.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
