The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Cincinnati BengalsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 10.9market CIN by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.5 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 79% to win, with the market at CIN by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Burrow starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: big plays favours HOU. HOU explosive pass rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #26 into HOU's #21. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 10.9 against a market CIN by 5.5: 5.4 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 44.5 against a line of 46: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 10.9 · market CIN by 5.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #12, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into HOU's #13.
Rushing game
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU rushing ranks #28, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #16 into HOU's #7.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU third-down conversion ranks #20, CIN defends it at #23; the other way CIN #18 into HOU's #6.
Big plays
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU explosive pass rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #26 into HOU's #21.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #17, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #3, HOU defends it at #20; the other way HOU #1 into CIN's #11.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
CIN +1.8 per game over the last five, HOU +4.0.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 5.5; the model says CIN by 10.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 5.5 · model CIN by 10.9
Mkt CIN 5.5
Model CIN 10.9
← HOU by 28tieCIN by 28 →
14.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 44.5
Mkt 46
Model 44.5
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 46 and 44.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
