The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Chicago BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 3.1market CHI by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.9 pointsmarket 38
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 59% to win, with the market at CHI by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Bryce Young starting for Carolina Panthers, and the model prices that in.
CHI has the advantage in rushing: CHI rushing ranks #9, CAR defends it at #32; the other way CAR #25 into CHI's #4.
CHI has the advantage in big plays: CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, CAR defends it at #11; the other way CAR #32 into CHI's #10.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 18.6 points a game (CHI +7.0, CAR -11.6).
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 3.1 against a market CHI by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.9 against a line of 38: 4.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 3.1 · market CHI by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI passing ranks #23, CAR defends it at #18; the other way CAR #30 into CHI's #16.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, CAR defends it at #32; the other way CAR #25 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI third-down conversion ranks #10, CAR defends it at #22; the other way CAR #27 into CHI's #29.
Big plays
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, CAR defends it at #11; the other way CAR #32 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CHI sack rate ranks #26, CAR defends it at #31; the other way CAR #30 into CHI's #32.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, CAR defends it at #32; the other way CAR #18 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI +7.0 per game over the last five, CAR −11.6.
Market
CHI
Slight advantage
Consensus has CHI by 3; the model says CHI by 3.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CHI by 3 · model CHI by 3.1
Mkt CHI 3
Model CHI 3.1
← CAR by 28tieCHI by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38 · model 42.9
Mkt 38
Model 42.9
20 pts4672 pts
11.0% of NFL games finish between 38 and 42.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
