The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%New York JetsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 0.6market LAC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.0 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 52% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Zach Wilson starting for New York Jets, and the model prices that in.
NYJ has the advantage in rushing: NYJ rushing ranks #29, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into NYJ's #8.
NYJ has the advantage in passing: NYJ passing ranks #32, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into NYJ's #3.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours LAC. LAC third-down conversion ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into LAC's #14. The pick still lands on NYJ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NYJ has the better last five games by 12.4 points a game (NYJ -1.4, LAC -13.8).
Home field is with NYJ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 0.6 against a market LAC by 3: 3.6 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 37.0 against a line of 41: 4.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 0.6 · market LAC by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ passing ranks #32, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into NYJ's #3.
Rushing game
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ rushing ranks #29, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into NYJ's #8.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #17, NYJ defends it at #13; the other way NYJ #32 into LAC's #14.
Big plays
=
Even
NYJ explosive pass rate ranks #30, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into NYJ's #4.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #2; the other way NYJ #29 into LAC's #11.
Ball security
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ turnovers / game ranks #28, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #19 into NYJ's #6.
Form (last 5)
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ −1.4 per game over the last five, LAC −13.8.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3; the model says NYJ by 0.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3 · model NYJ by 0.6
Mkt LAC 3
Model NYJ 0.6
← LAC by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 37.0
Mkt 41
Model 37.0
20 pts4672 pts
11.2% of NFL games finish between 41 and 37.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
