The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Cincinnati BengalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 1.5market CIN by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.5 pointsmarket 51
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 54% to win, with the market at CIN by 1.5.
Counterpoint: passing favours BUF. BUF passing ranks #2, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into BUF's #6. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: BUF has 3 more days since its last game (CIN 7d, BUF 10d).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 1.5 against a market CIN by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 44.5 against a line of 51: 6.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 1.5 · market CIN by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUF, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #2, CIN defends it at #25; the other way CIN #15 into BUF's #6.
Rushing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF rushing ranks #2, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #16 into BUF's #23.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF third-down conversion ranks #2, CIN defends it at #23; the other way CIN #18 into BUF's #18.
Big plays
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #21, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #26 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, CIN defends it at #17; the other way CIN #24 into BUF's #5.
Ball security
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #3, BUF defends it at #2; the other way BUF #22 into CIN's #11.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Slight advantage
CIN +1.8 per game over the last five, BUF +5.2.
Market
CIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has CIN by 1.5; the model says CIN by 1.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 1.5 · model CIN by 1.5
Mkt CIN 1.5
Model CIN 1.5
← BUF by 28tieCIN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51 · model 44.5
Mkt 51
Model 44.5
20 pts4672 pts
15.7% of NFL games finish between 51 and 44.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
