The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Houston TexansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 0.8market HOU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
35.1 pointsmarket 39.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 52% to win, with the market at HOU by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Baker Mayfield starting for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the model prices that in.
HOU has the advantage in passing: HOU passing ranks #12, TB defends it at #22; the other way TB #9 into HOU's #13.
Rest: TB has 3 more days since its last game (HOU 7d, TB 10d).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 0.8 against a market HOU by 2.5: 1.7 points of daylight in TB's favour. The model's total is 35.1 against a line of 39.5: 4.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 0.8 · market HOU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU passing ranks #12, TB defends it at #22; the other way TB #9 into HOU's #13.
Rushing game
=
Even
TB rushing ranks #26, HOU defends it at #7; the other way HOU #28 into TB's #5.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU third-down conversion ranks #20, TB defends it at #21; the other way TB #9 into HOU's #6.
Big plays
=
Even
HOU explosive pass rate ranks #2, TB defends it at #27; the other way TB #6 into HOU's #21.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #17, TB defends it at #15; the other way TB #18 into HOU's #9.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #1, TB defends it at #16; the other way TB #13 into HOU's #20.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
HOU +4.0 per game over the last five, TB +6.4.
Market
HOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has HOU by 2.5; the model says HOU by 0.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 2.5 · model HOU by 0.8
Mkt HOU 2.5
Model HOU 0.8
← TB by 28tieHOU by 28 →
4.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39.5 · model 35.1
Mkt 39.5
Model 35.1
20 pts4672 pts
10.4% of NFL games finish between 39.5 and 35.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
