The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Atlanta FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ATL by 0.2market ATL by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.5 pointsmarket 38.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Atlanta Falcons at 51% to win, with the market at ATL by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jaren Hall starting for Minnesota Vikings, and the model prices that in.
ATL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, MIN defends it at #25; the other way MIN #19 into ATL's #3.
ATL has the advantage in rushing: ATL rushing ranks #27, MIN defends it at #17; the other way MIN #22 into ATL's #1.
Home field is with ATL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ATL by 0.2 against a market ATL by 3.5: 3.3 points of daylight in MIN's favour. The model's total is 38.5 against a line of 38.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ATL by 0.2 · market ATL by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN passing ranks #18, ATL defends it at #19; the other way ATL #22 into MIN's #14.
Rushing game
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL rushing ranks #27, MIN defends it at #17; the other way MIN #22 into ATL's #1.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL third-down conversion ranks #13, MIN defends it at #25; the other way MIN #19 into ATL's #3.
Big plays
=
Even
MIN explosive pass rate ranks #3, ATL defends it at #18; the other way ATL #17 into MIN's #12.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ATL sack rate ranks #22, MIN defends it at #20; the other way MIN #20 into ATL's #18.
Ball security
=
Even
MIN turnovers / game ranks #31, ATL defends it at #27; the other way ATL #26 into MIN's #19.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
ATL −7.6 per game over the last five, MIN −7.8.
Market
ATL
Clear advantage
Consensus has ATL by 3.5; the model says ATL by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ATL by 3.5 · model ATL by 0.2
Mkt ATL 3.5
Model ATL 0.2
← MIN by 28tieATL by 28 →
12.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38.5 · model 38.5
Mkt 38.5
Model 38.5
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
