The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Kansas City ChiefsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 4.3market KC by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.9 pointsmarket 51
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 63% to win, with the market at KC by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Patrick Mahomes starting for Kansas City Chiefs, and the model prices that in.
KC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: KC third-down conversion ranks #6, MIA defends it at #19; the other way MIA #12 into KC's #5.
KC has the advantage in passing: KC passing ranks #7, MIA defends it at #15; the other way MIA #5 into KC's #4.
Counterpoint: rushing favours MIA. MIA rushing ranks #5, KC defends it at #25; the other way KC #23 into MIA's #10. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: KC has the better last five games by 12.8 points a game (KC +6.6, MIA -6.2).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 4.3 against a market KC by 1: 3.3 points of daylight in KC's favour. The model's total is 49.9 against a line of 51: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 4.3 · market KC by 1
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
KC
Slight advantage
KC passing ranks #7, MIA defends it at #15; the other way MIA #5 into KC's #4.
Rushing game
MIA
Clear advantage
MIA rushing ranks #5, KC defends it at #25; the other way KC #23 into MIA's #10.
Third down & red zone
KC
Slight advantage
KC third-down conversion ranks #6, MIA defends it at #19; the other way MIA #12 into KC's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
MIA explosive rush rate ranks #1, KC defends it at #6; the other way KC #23 into MIA's #1.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
KC sack rate ranks #2, MIA defends it at #1; the other way MIA #5 into KC's #4.
Ball security
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA turnovers / game ranks #24, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #23 into MIA's #8.
Form (last 5)
KC
Clear advantage
KC +6.6 per game over the last five, MIA −6.2.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has KC by 1; the model says KC by 4.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 1 · model KC by 4.3
Mkt KC 1
Model KC 4.3
← MIA by 28tieKC by 28 →
12.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51 · model 49.9
Mkt 51
Model 49.9
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 51 and 49.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
