The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
71%Los Angeles ChargersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 7.5market LAC by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.4 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 71% to win, with the market at LAC by 9.5.
LAC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #14, CHI defends it at #31; the other way CHI #15 into LAC's #13.
Counterpoint: rushing favours CHI. CHI rushing ranks #9, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into CHI's #4. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 20.8 points a game (LAC -13.8, CHI +7.0).
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 7.5 against a market LAC by 9.5: 2.0 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 49.4 against a line of 46: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 7.5 · market LAC by 9.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks LAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
CHI passing ranks #23, LAC defends it at #24; the other way LAC #17 into CHI's #16.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, LAC defends it at #18; the other way LAC #32 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #14, CHI defends it at #31; the other way CHI #15 into LAC's #13.
Big plays
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, LAC defends it at #29; the other way LAC #15 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #12, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into LAC's #11.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #19 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
LAC −13.8 per game over the last five, CHI +7.0.
Market
LAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAC by 9.5; the model says LAC by 7.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 9.5 · model LAC by 7.5
Mkt LAC 9.5
Model LAC 7.5
← CHI by 28tieLAC by 28 →
3.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 49.4
Mkt 46
Model 49.4
20 pts4672 pts
8.4% of NFL games finish between 46 and 49.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
