The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Seattle SeahawksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 4.5market SEA by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.2 pointsmarket 39.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 63% to win, with the market at SEA by 4.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Phillip Walker starting for Cleveland Browns, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive rush rate ranks #9, CLE defends it at #31; the other way CLE #19 into SEA's #18.
Counterpoint: rushing favours CLE. CLE rushing ranks #21, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into CLE's #9. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 4.5 against a market SEA by 4: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.2 against a line of 39.5: 2.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 4.5 · market SEA by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor CLE, but the model still picks SEA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE passing ranks #29, SEA defends it at #27; the other way SEA #13 into CLE's #1.
Rushing game
CLE
Clear advantage
CLE rushing ranks #21, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #14 into CLE's #9.
Third down & red zone
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE third-down conversion ranks #29, SEA defends it at #31; the other way SEA #23 into CLE's #1.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #9, CLE defends it at #31; the other way CLE #19 into SEA's #18.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CLE sack rate ranks #16, SEA defends it at #12; the other way SEA #11 into CLE's #6.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #2, CLE defends it at #12; the other way CLE #32 into SEA's #21.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
SEA −2.4 per game over the last five, CLE −2.8.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 4; the model says SEA by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 4 · model SEA by 4.5
Mkt SEA 4
Model SEA 4.5
← CLE by 28tieSEA by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 4 and 4.5, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 4. The market is on 4, a number 4.9% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 39.5 · model 42.2
Mkt 39.5
Model 42.2
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 39.5 and 42.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
