The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Pittsburgh SteelersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 1.1market JAX by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.4 pointsmarket 41
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 53% to win, with the market at JAX by 2.5.
PIT has the advantage in rushing: PIT rushing ranks #12, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into PIT's #15.
Rest: JAX has 3 more days since its last game (PIT 7d, JAX 10d).
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 1.1 against a market JAX by 2.5: 3.6 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 43.4 against a line of 41: 2.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 1.1 · market JAX by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
JAX passing ranks #19, PIT defends it at #9; the other way PIT #25 into JAX's #11.
Rushing game
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT rushing ranks #12, JAX defends it at #22; the other way JAX #30 into PIT's #15.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
JAX third-down conversion ranks #16, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #21 into JAX's #12.
Big plays
=
Even
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #19; the other way JAX #29 into PIT's #11.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #14, JAX defends it at #27; the other way JAX #9 into PIT's #10.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #5, JAX defends it at #10; the other way JAX #27 into PIT's #7.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT +1.2 per game over the last five, JAX −4.0.
Market
JAX
Slight advantage
Consensus has JAX by 2.5; the model says PIT by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 2.5 · model PIT by 1.1
Mkt JAX 2.5
Model PIT 1.1
← JAX by 28tiePIT by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41 · model 43.4
Mkt 41
Model 43.4
20 pts4672 pts
5.2% of NFL games finish between 41 and 43.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
