The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%New York JetsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NYJ by 0.8market NYJ by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
26.0 pointsmarket 35
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New York Jets at 52% to win, with the market at NYJ by 3.
NYJ has the advantage in rushing: NYJ rushing ranks #29, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #31 into NYJ's #8.
NYJ has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NYJ red-zone touchdown rate ranks #32, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #31 into NYJ's #7.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NYG. NYG turnovers / game ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #6; the other way NYJ #28 into NYG's #3. The pick still lands on NYJ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NYJ has 7 more days since its last game (NYG 7d, NYJ 14d).
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NYJ by 0.8 against a market NYJ by 3: 2.2 points of daylight in NYG's favour. The model's total is 26.0 against a line of 35: 9.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NYJ by 0.8 · market NYJ by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
NYJ passing ranks #32, NYG defends it at #12; the other way NYG #28 into NYJ's #3.
Rushing game
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ rushing ranks #29, NYG defends it at #29; the other way NYG #31 into NYJ's #8.
Third down & red zone
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ red-zone touchdown rate ranks #32, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #31 into NYJ's #7.
Big plays
=
Even
NYJ explosive rush rate ranks #28, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #15 into NYJ's #16.
Pass protection & rush
NYJ
Clear advantage
NYJ sack rate ranks #29, NYG defends it at #30; the other way NYG #32 into NYJ's #2.
Ball security
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #6; the other way NYJ #28 into NYG's #3.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NYG −1.6 per game over the last five, NYJ −1.4.
Market
NYJ
Slight advantage
Consensus has NYJ by 3; the model says NYJ by 0.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NYJ by 3 · model NYJ by 0.8
Mkt NYJ 3
Model NYJ 0.8
← NYJ by 28tieNYG by 28 →
4.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 35 · model 26.0
Mkt 35
Model 26.0
20 pts4672 pts
14.2% of NFL games finish between 35 and 26.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
