The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 0.6market MIN by 1
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.6 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 52% to win, with the market at MIN by 1.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jordan Love starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
GB has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GB third-down conversion ranks #3, MIN defends it at #25; the other way MIN #19 into GB's #28.
Form: GB has the better last five games by 17.2 points a game (GB +9.4, MIN -7.8).
Home field is with GB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 0.6 against a market MIN by 1: 1.6 points of daylight in GB's favour. The model's total is 41.6 against a line of 41.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 0.6 · market MIN by 1
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #4, MIN defends it at #14; the other way MIN #18 into GB's #23.
Rushing game
=
Even
GB rushing ranks #11, MIN defends it at #17; the other way MIN #22 into GB's #26.
Third down & red zone
GB
Slight advantage
GB third-down conversion ranks #3, MIN defends it at #25; the other way MIN #19 into GB's #28.
Big plays
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN explosive pass rate ranks #3, GB defends it at #20; the other way GB #7 into MIN's #12.
Pass protection & rush
GB
Clear advantage
GB sack rate ranks #3, MIN defends it at #20; the other way MIN #20 into GB's #16.
Ball security
GB
Clear advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #8, MIN defends it at #19; the other way MIN #31 into GB's #24.
Form (last 5)
GB
Clear advantage
GB +9.4 per game over the last five, MIN −7.8.
Market
=
Even
Consensus has MIN by 1; the model says GB by 0.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 1 · model GB by 0.6
Mkt MIN 1
Model GB 0.6
← MIN by 28tieGB by 28 →
0.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 1, a number 4.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 41.6
Mkt 41.5
Model 41.6
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
