The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Los Angeles RamsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 0.2market LAR by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
36.2 pointsmarket 44
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 51% to win, with the market at LAR by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Kenny Pickett starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
LAR has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAR third-down conversion ranks #8, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #21 into LAR's #17.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PIT. PIT turnovers / game ranks #5, LAR defends it at #30; the other way LAR #7 into PIT's #7. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: PIT has 7 more days since its last game (LAR 7d, PIT 14d).
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 0.2 against a market LAR by 3.5: 3.3 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 36.2 against a line of 44: 7.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 0.2 · market LAR by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
LAR passing ranks #8, PIT defends it at #9; the other way PIT #25 into LAR's #21.
Rushing game
=
Even
LAR rushing ranks #7, PIT defends it at #15; the other way PIT #12 into LAR's #20.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR third-down conversion ranks #8, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #21 into LAR's #17.
Big plays
=
Even
LAR explosive pass rate ranks #4, PIT defends it at #30; the other way PIT #24 into LAR's #24.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
PIT sack rate ranks #14, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #6 into PIT's #10.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #5, LAR defends it at #30; the other way LAR #7 into PIT's #7.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAR +3.4 per game over the last five, PIT +1.2.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 3.5; the model says LAR by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 3.5 · model LAR by 0.2
Mkt LAR 3.5
Model LAR 0.2
← PIT by 28tieLAR by 28 →
12.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44 · model 36.2
Mkt 44
Model 36.2
20 pts4672 pts
19.9% of NFL games finish between 44 and 36.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
