The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Cleveland BrownsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CLE by 2.5market CLE by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.9 pointsmarket 40
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cleveland Browns at 57% to win, with the market at CLE by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Gardner Minshew starting for Indianapolis Colts, and the model prices that in.
CLE has the advantage in passing: CLE passing ranks #29, IND defends it at #20; the other way IND #16 into CLE's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours IND. IND turnovers / game ranks #14, CLE defends it at #12; the other way CLE #32 into IND's #15. The pick still lands on CLE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with IND, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CLE by 2.5 against a market CLE by 3.5: 1.0 points of daylight in IND's favour. The model's total is 43.9 against a line of 40: 3.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CLE by 2.5 · market CLE by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor IND, but the model still picks CLE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE passing ranks #29, IND defends it at #20; the other way IND #16 into CLE's #1.
Rushing game
=
Even
CLE rushing ranks #21, IND defends it at #16; the other way IND #18 into CLE's #9.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
IND red-zone touchdown rate ranks #24, CLE defends it at #32; the other way CLE #13 into IND's #17.
Big plays
IND
Slight advantage
IND explosive rush rate ranks #7, CLE defends it at #31; the other way CLE #19 into IND's #7.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
IND sack rate ranks #15, CLE defends it at #6; the other way CLE #16 into IND's #3.
Ball security
IND
Clear advantage
IND turnovers / game ranks #14, CLE defends it at #12; the other way CLE #32 into IND's #15.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
IND −4.6 per game over the last five, CLE −2.8.
Market
CLE
Clear advantage
Consensus has CLE by 3.5; the model says CLE by 2.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CLE by 3.5 · model CLE by 2.5
Mkt CLE 3.5
Model CLE 2.5
← CLE by 28tieIND by 28 →
6.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40 · model 43.9
Mkt 40
Model 43.9
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 40 and 43.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
