The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Chicago BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CHI by 0.4market LV by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.6 pointsmarket 38.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Chicago Bears at 51% to win, with the market at LV by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Brian Hoyer starting for Las Vegas Raiders, and the model prices that in.
CHI has the advantage in rushing: CHI rushing ranks #9, LV defends it at #11; the other way LV #24 into CHI's #4.
CHI has the advantage in big plays: CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, LV defends it at #7; the other way LV #29 into CHI's #10.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours LV. LV sack rate ranks #19, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into LV's #13. The pick still lands on CHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with CHI, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CHI by 0.4 against a market LV by 2.5: 2.9 points of daylight in CHI's favour. The model's total is 43.6 against a line of 38.5: 5.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CHI by 0.4 · market LV by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
LV passing ranks #24, CHI defends it at #16; the other way CHI #23 into LV's #10.
Rushing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI rushing ranks #9, LV defends it at #11; the other way LV #24 into CHI's #4.
Third down & red zone
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI third-down conversion ranks #10, LV defends it at #24; the other way LV #24 into CHI's #29.
Big plays
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #13, LV defends it at #7; the other way LV #29 into CHI's #10.
Pass protection & rush
LV
Clear advantage
LV sack rate ranks #19, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #26 into LV's #13.
Ball security
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #21, LV defends it at #18; the other way LV #20 into CHI's #5.
Form (last 5)
LV
Slight advantage
CHI +7.0 per game over the last five, LV +11.0.
Market
LV
Slight advantage
Consensus has LV by 2.5; the model says CHI by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LV by 2.5 · model CHI by 0.4
Mkt LV 2.5
Model CHI 0.4
← LV by 28tieCHI by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38.5 · model 43.6
Mkt 38.5
Model 43.6
20 pts4672 pts
14.5% of NFL games finish between 38.5 and 43.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
